DR. ADAM J. FEIN: A BAD Q1 FOR DISTRIBUTORS, BUT THE WORST IS OVER
In his most recent post on his blog, Distribution Trends, Dr. Adam J. Fein suggests it is time to begin planning for economic recovery: “The recession is not over, but we are at (or near) the bottom. Time to start getting ready for the emerging risks associated with the coming economic recovery.”
Distribution Trends Excerpt:
While my 2009 outlook for many wholesale distribution sectors has worsened, we are still on track for recovery in 2010. The latest economic data show that many sectors are either stabilizing (or merely getting worse at a slower rate). However, consistent year-over-year growth will not return until 2010.
The question is no longer “when will the recovery begin?” but rather “what will the recovery look like?” The recovery will probably be slow compared to historical norms. The most likely scenario appears to be a slow “U-shaped” recovery, assuming no major policy errors.
However, I believe there there is a credible scenario developing for unexpectedly rapid growth in 2010/2011 — a “V-shaped” recovery that could sow the seeds for much bigger problems because this scenario carries a significant chance of inflation.
Click here to continue reading.